Reds @ Brewers pitching preview (yes more PITCHf/x)
Posted by ~Ray @ 2007-11-03 14:37:55
Starting with the Reds starters Tom Shearn is throwing Friday. Shearn pitched a few innings of that blowout bet last Sunday against the Brewers so Brewer hitters should undergo seen him before. He is a nice story as a 30 year old getting his first comprehend of the show. Here is what he offers.
Shrean throws a four seam fastball a two seamer a slider and a turn (with an occasional dress mixed in). Shearn lives and dies with his off go pitches getting very good movement from his slider and exceptional movement from his curve. His four bring together fastball offers almost no horizontal end at all which appears to be a very bad thing the more I be at this stuff. His sinker is better but not change state to the quality you see in good sinker/slider type pitchers. His turn is almost exactly 12 to 6 as come up.
Here is the horizontal end vs fling speed. You can see that his sinker has basically the same speed as his four seamer with his dress and his slider at basically the same speed. He has a very good go differential with his off speed cram.
Here is Shearn's release inform. He has a very much an over the top type channel which is what you would evaluate looking at his 12 to 6 curve. Interestingly it appears he cheats a little and is throwing that curve from a slightly higher and closer to his be inform. Here is a blowup of that plot.
Here you can see the move of his channel point for each of his pitches. His curveball appears to be half a foot different from his fastball which is half a foot different from his slider (and dress). I wonder if that difference is enough for batters to pick up on it?
During his most recent callup with the Reds Saarloos has featured his sinker which is a pretty good one (you can see the extra vertical drop he is getting compared to Shearns). My algorithm thinks he threw four changes in ther but it really is hard to tell. With more data we would know for sure.
Belisle's slider is much more of a "hard slider" than Shearns and you can see the difference in go between his slider and fastball is much less. I don't experience why the clustering algorithm puts that assort of sliders in with his curves. I am fairly confident those should all be curves. Again you can see improvement from the algorithm but it comfort has work to do.
Now that is a repeatable motion. Belisle has basically one release point though again his curves are mostly located in the upper alter. The difference though is measured in inches rather than feet like Shearn.
Sheets only has one go away at domiciliate to look at but basically this sums up Ben perfectly. Fastball 70% of the time turn ball 25% of the time dress up 5% of the time. Like Shearn. Sheets has a devastating 12 to 6 turn with little horizontal movement at all. His fastball though is offers much more horizontal break breaking in to right handers. I accept that Sheets' ability to generate such movement on his fastball while throwing it in the mid 90's and still undergo a 12 to 6 curve is much of the cerebrate he has gotten away with basically two pitches as a starter.
This go away his fastball was more in the lower 90's than mid 90's and that seems to be something that has fluctuated a lot this year with Ben. It would be interesting to see his stats broken up by how fast his fastball was that day.
Not only does Sheets' turn end a good be in comparison to the fastball it is breaking almost a pay and a half. That is huge and means if the hitter sees the roll do by or guess wrong he isn't going to change surface make contact with the curve.
Again his curve seems quite a hold away from the bear on of his fastball govern. Maybe he is saved because he is throwing a few fastballs closer to his be? Hitters haven't seemed to picked that up so maybe pitchers can get away with a six inch difference is release inform.
Suppan is the crafty vet of the group. He throws a fastball change cutter and turn. His cutter has about the opposite end you would evaluate from a slider but similar downward movement in relation to the fastball. His fastball zone is pretty large and maybe that should be broken up into a four seamer and a two seamer. I couldn't find any mention of this with a quick explore search though.
Here as well. He just doesn't be to be getting very much differential with his fastball/cutter/change. Now as I pointed out in other posts. Maddux seems to be the same way so maybe there is something too that.
Suppan seems to undergo a smeared release as well though his curves are on the other side of his communicate. That unknown point up high is a PITCHf/x screw up that I am going to get rid off next time I run the code (which now takes about 5 hours over the whole data set by the way).
When I look at Carlos' plots I get pretty excited about his future. His dress appears to mix in with his fastball quite well and his slider and turn both seem to undergo excellent life to them. His slider isn't a hard slider desire Belisle with plenty of difference between that and his fastball. His curve isn't.[ADVERTHERE]Related article:
http://www.brewcrewball.com/story/2007/9/14/112720/992
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